The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 5.18% on Thursday, according to the Treasury Department’s daily par yield curve — the highest level in that series since July 6, 2007, when it stood at 5.19%. At noon Eastern time, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.03%, the first weekly Freddie Mac average at or above 7.00% since January 16, 2025.
The Treasury and mortgage numbers arrived hours apart, on a day that also brought the government’s weekly count of new unemployment claims. The 10-year yield is the return investors earn on the government’s 10-year notes at current market prices; it rises when those prices fall. Treasury’s figure is its official end-of-day par yield. Treasury’s own data show both benchmark rates were higher this week, though one is a daily figure and the other a Thursday-to-Wednesday weekly average, not measured over the same days; the department’s figures do not say why, and neither this article nor any source it draws on states a cause.
The week in treasury data
Treasury’s daily par yield curve — the department’s official end-of-day rate — shows the 10-year yield holding at 4.96% on both Monday, Sept. 21, and Tuesday, Sept. 22. It rose to 5.11% on Wednesday, Sept. 23, then to 5.18% on Thursday, Sept. 24. That Thursday level is the highest since July 2007, according to Treasury’s daily yield curve data. Earlier in 2026, the 10-year yield had been as low as 3.97%, on Feb. 27.
Other maturities moved similarly on Thursday: the 2-year note stood at 4.87% and the 30-year bond at 5.47%. Treasury’s par yields can differ by a few hundredths of a point from the market quotes some outlets cite; this article uses only the department’s own published curve.
This week’s auctions
The Treasury also sold new debt this week. The 2-year note, auctioned Tuesday, Sept. 22, priced at a high yield of 4.787%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63. The 5-year note, auctioned Wednesday, Sept. 23, priced at 5.033%, with a bid-to-cover of 2.21. The 7-year note, auctioned Thursday, Sept. 24, priced at 5.085%, with a bid-to-cover of 2.42. TreasuryDirect’s results do not characterize investor demand as strong or weak, and this article does not either.
The Fed’s rate move, eight days earlier
The rate moves this week followed a Federal Reserve decision on Sept. 16, when the central bank’s rate-setting committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. In its statement, the Fed said the move would “support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal,” and noted that “inflation remains elevated.” No source examined for this article ties the Fed’s action directly to this week’s Treasury or mortgage moves; the two are reported here only as events in the same short stretch of days.
Mortgages cross 7%
Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday at noon ET, put the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.03%, up from 6.95% a week earlier and 6.30% a year ago. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.42%, up from 6.26%. In the four weeks before this week, the 30-year rate was 6.66% on Aug. 27, 6.71% on Sept. 3, 6.76% on Sept. 10 and 6.95% on Sept. 17.
Freddie Mac describes its weekly figure as an average of loan rates offered from the prior Thursday through Wednesday — meaning this week’s 7.03% reading is largely built from rates quoted before Thursday’s Treasury yield high, and mostly does not yet reflect it.
A separate weekly survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association, released Wednesday, Sept. 23, for the week ending Sept. 18, and reported here as it appeared via HousingWire, put the average 30-year conforming contract rate at 7.12%, up from 6.97%. The MBA survey also showed its mortgage applications index down 1.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, its refinance index down 3%, and adjustable-rate mortgages accounting for 9.8% of applications.
On plainlynow’s own calculation, using the standard amortization formula on a $400,000, 30-year fixed loan and excluding taxes and insurance: a rate of 7.03% works out to a monthly principal-and-interest payment of about $2,669. The same loan at 6.30% — last year’s Freddie Mac average — would run about $2,476 a month. That is a difference of roughly $193 a month on the same loan amount.
Thursday’s other data point
The Labor Department also reported Thursday morning that initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 19 came in at 197,000, seasonally adjusted — down 1,000 from a revised 198,000 the prior week. The four-week moving average was 202,250. Continuing claims, for the week ending Sept. 12, stood at 1,719,000.
What the data does, and does not, show
Treasury’s own daily figures and Freddie Mac’s own weekly figures moved in the same direction this week: the 10-year yield was unchanged at 4.96% on Monday and Tuesday, then rose on Wednesday (5.11%) and Thursday (5.18%), and Freddie Mac’s mortgage average rose for the fourth straight week, from 6.66% on Aug. 27. Beyond that overlap, none of the sources reviewed for this article states what caused either move, and none offers a forecast for where yields or mortgage rates go from here.