The raise Social Security recipients can expect in 2027 is still an estimate, not a decision. Four organizations that track the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) each year currently put next year’s figure somewhere between 3.2% and 3.6%, based on the inflation data available so far. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has the highest current estimate, at 3.6%. AARP puts it at 3.5%. Independent analyst Mary Johnson estimates 3.4%. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has the lowest estimate, at 3.2%.
Key facts
- 2027 COLA estimates: 3.2% to 3.6%, depending on the tracker — not yet final
- The Senior Citizens League (TSCL): 3.6%
- AARP: 3.5%
- Mary Johnson (independent analyst): 3.4%
- Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB): 3.2%
- 2026 COLA (already in effect): 2.8%
- Official 2027 COLA announcement: Oct. 14
- Next data point: August CPI-W report, due Sept. 11
How the estimate is calculated
The Social Security Administration calculates the COLA from average inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), across July, August and September — compared with the same three months a year earlier. Only July’s figure is in so far, from a CPI-W report the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Aug. 12. It showed inflation cooling to 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5% in June. That figure matches Mary Johnson’s separate 3.4% COLA estimate, but the two numbers measure different things: one is the July inflation reading, while the other is her calculation of next year’s raise. That cooling in July’s inflation reading is what pushed all four trackers to lower the estimates they had been running earlier in the summer. TSCL cut its estimate from 3.8% to 3.6%. AARP cut its estimate from 3.6% to 3.5%. Johnson — who is not affiliated with TSCL, AARP or the government, but has published her own COLA projections for years and is regularly cited alongside those two organizations as a separate, independent data point — saw her own estimate fall further, from a high of roughly 4.7% in June, through about 3.7%, to its current 3.4%, a decline she has attributed to what she called “a moderation in inflation.”
More data still needed
Two more months of data are still needed before any number is final. AARP itself says its 3.5% estimate “is not set in stone” and could still move depending on how food and energy prices behave in the reports still to come.
How this compares to 2026
The 2026 Social Security COLA, finalized last October, was 2.8%. Every current 2027 estimate — even CRFB’s low-end 3.2% — is above that, although the final 2027 figure is not yet known.
What it could mean in dollars
Published dollar illustrations for 3.5%-3.6% scenarios range from roughly $70 to $75 more a month for an average retired worker, depending on the baseline benefit used. There is no single confirmed dollar figure yet, both because the percentage itself isn’t locked in and because trackers start from different baseline benefit amounts.
- TSCL (3.6% estimate): raises the average benefit it tracks from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28 — about $70 more.
- Newsweek analysis (same 3.6% rate, applied to a baseline of roughly $2,086 — the same starting figure AARP uses below): puts the increase at about $75 more, to around $2,161.
- AARP (3.5% estimate): raises the average retired-worker benefit from about $2,086 to $2,159 — about $73 more.
What happens next
The August CPI-W report is due Sept. 11, giving analysts two of the three months of data the formula needs. The Social Security Administration is set to announce the official 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, alongside the September CPI-W figure — the last piece of the calculation, and the one that will either confirm the current estimates or move them again.