Social Security’s retirement trust fund is now projected to run through its reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032 — three months earlier than the government estimated a year ago. That’s the headline finding in the Social Security Board of Trustees’ 2026 annual report, released June 9, 2026, by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, SSA (Social Security Administration) Commissioner Frank Bisignano, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling.
Key facts
- OASI depletion date: fourth quarter of 2032 — three months earlier than last year’s estimate of the first quarter of 2033
- DI (disability) fund: projected to stay solvent through the Trustees’ entire 75-year projection window
- Combined OASI-plus-DI figure (a hypothetical measure, not a merged fund): projected to last until the third quarter of 2034, essentially unchanged from last year
- 2025 reserves: combined OASI and DI reserves fell $160 billion, to $2.56 trillion
- If OASI alone runs dry in late 2032: payroll-tax income would still cover about 78% of scheduled benefits — a cut of roughly 22%
- If the combined measure runs dry in the third quarter of 2034: payroll-tax income would cover about 83% of scheduled benefits — a cut of roughly 17%
- Report released: June 9, 2026, by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, SSA Commissioner Frank Bisignano, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling
Two funds, two different dates
That number is about one specific piece of Social Security: the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund, which pays retirement and survivor benefits. Last year’s report put that fund’s depletion date at the first quarter of 2033; the new report moves it up one quarter, to the fourth quarter of 2032. Social Security actually runs a second trust fund too — Disability Insurance (DI), which pays people who can’t work because of a disability — and DI on its own is projected to stay solvent for the Trustees’ entire 75-year projection window. Under current law, the two funds are legally separate. That means the OASI date is what matters to retirees and survivors, while people receiving disability benefits are covered by the separate DI fund — one the report does not project running short at any point.
The Trustees also publish a hypothetical combined OASI-plus-DI figure, purely for illustration — it is not something Congress has actually merged. That combined number is projected to last until the third quarter of 2034, essentially unchanged from last year’s report. So there are two different dates for two different measures: OASI alone runs short in late 2032; OASI and DI added together last until the third quarter of 2034. Combined OASI and DI reserves already fell by $160 billion in 2025, to $2.56 trillion, and the Trustees project that the program’s yearly costs will exceed its yearly income starting in 2026 and remain higher across their entire 75-year window.
What a shortfall would mean for your check
Reaching either date would not mean Social Security disappears or stops paying benefits, despite how “trust fund depletion” sounds. Payroll taxes keep flowing into the program regardless of what happens to the reserves, because current workers keep paying in as long as they keep working. If the OASI fund alone runs dry in late 2032 and Congress has done nothing by then, that ongoing payroll-tax income would still be enough to pay about 78% of scheduled retirement benefits — an across-the-board cut of roughly 22%, not a stoppage. If it’s the combined OASI-and-DI measure that’s depleted in the third quarter of 2034, incoming revenue would cover about 83% of scheduled benefits, a smaller cut of roughly 17%. Either way, checks keep going out; they would just be smaller, and only if lawmakers haven’t acted first.
What’s driving the earlier date
Financial commentary, including from Fortune magazine, points to demographics as part of what’s driving the pressure: a large generation of baby boomers continuing to retire and draw benefits, while a shrinking share of the workforce pays payroll taxes on their behalf. According to CNBC’s coverage of the report, Social Security’s chief actuary also pointed to a 2025 federal tax law that changed how Social Security benefits are taxed. The actuary said the change had a “material” effect on the fund’s finances this year — one contributing factor among several, not the sole cause of the earlier date.
Timeline
- 2025 — A federal tax law changed how Social Security benefits are taxed; the chief actuary said it had a “material” effect on the fund’s finances this year.
- June 9, 2026 — The Social Security Board of Trustees releases its 2026 annual report, moving the OASI depletion date to the fourth quarter of 2032.
- July 2026 — Sens. Dick Durbin and Bill Cassidy introduce the bipartisan PROMISE Act to set up a formal process for writing a solvency plan.
- August 28, 2026 — NPR reports that lawmakers have not made Social Security’s solvency a top priority heading into the midterms.
Congress’s response so far
Congress has not passed anything to address the shortfall. Sens. Dick Durbin and Bill Cassidy introduced the bipartisan PROMISE Act in July to set up a formal process for writing a solvency plan, rather than cutting benefits or raising taxes directly. A separate proposal from Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Moreno would raise or eliminate the cap on earnings subject to the payroll tax; conservative groups have criticized it, and it hasn’t advanced. Other bipartisan bills, including one to create an independent solvency commission, have also been introduced without becoming law. As of an NPR report published August 28, 2026, lawmakers have not made the issue a top priority heading into the midterms.
What this means for you now
For now, nothing changes for anyone currently receiving Social Security or planning to file for it in the next several years. Any cut is not scheduled to take effect until the relevant trust fund is actually depleted, and only if Congress takes no action before then — something lawmakers still have years left to do.
Sources and further reading
- Social Security Board of Trustees: Projection for Combined Trust Funds One Year Sooner than Last Year
- Trustees Report Summary
- The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report
- Social Security Board of Trustees: Projection for Combined Trust Funds Remains Consistent with Prior Year
- Suozzi Introduces Bipartisan Legislation to Secure Long-term Social Security Funding
- At Hearing, Warren Calls on Congress to Solve Social Security Insolvency Before 2032 Benefits Cuts
- Social Security: What Would Happen If the Trust Funds Ran Out?