Update, Sept. 4, 2026: Edouard’s landfall point, more precisely, was near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, at roughly 2:20-2:25 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, Sept. 1, with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph — the storm never reached hurricane strength. It weakened to a tropical depression as it moved inland, producing 8 to 10 inches of rain in some areas and gusts of 50 to 60 mph. It was the third storm to make landfall during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The system has since dissipated. The Sept. 2 update below, describing East Texas flash flooding as the depression moved inland, is kept as a record of that stage of the storm.
Update, Sept. 2, 2026: The system did become Tropical Storm Edouard, made landfall on the Texas coast, and has since weakened back to a tropical depression while moving inland. As of the National Hurricane Center’s Sept. 2 advisory, Edouard was centered near Lufkin, Texas, with 35 mph winds, and is producing significant flash flooding across East Texas; Flood Watches remain in effect from the Upper Texas Coast into eastern Texas and southwest Louisiana. Gradual weakening is expected. The forecast-stage details below are kept as a record of how the storm was being tracked before landfall.
Update, Monday, Aug. 31: The Gulf of Mexico disturbance described below as a 50% chance of development has organized into Tropical Depression Five, centered about 120 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana, with 35 mph winds. The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line in Louisiana. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm — the next name on the list is Edouard — and reach the warning area Tuesday before moving inland over southeast Texas Tuesday night, bringing 3 to 6 inches of rain to the Upper Texas Coast and a risk of 1 to 3 feet of storm surge in southwest Louisiana.
As of Sunday afternoon, Aug. 30, 2026, before that development, there were no hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings anywhere in the United States, according to a live check of the National Weather Service’s alert system. That was true even though forecasters were watching several tropical systems and disturbances at once: Hurricane Karina far out in the Eastern Pacific, a separate tropical wave south of southwestern Mexico, the Gulf of Mexico disturbance described above, the fading remains of Tropical Storm Dolly, and Tropical Storm Lowell near Hawaii.
Here’s what’s actually happening with each one.
Key facts
- No hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings are in effect anywhere in the US as of Sunday afternoon, Aug. 30
- Systems being tracked include Hurricane Karina, a separate Eastern Pacific tropical wave, a Gulf of Mexico disturbance, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, and Tropical Storm Lowell
- Karina: Category 1 hurricane, 80 mph winds, ~820 miles southwest of Baja California, expected to become a major hurricane
- Gulf low: ~125 miles south of southeastern Louisiana, 50% chance of development
- Lowell: 50 mph winds, could reach Category 2 by Thursday, Sept. 3
- Update: the Gulf low became Tropical Depression Five on Monday, Aug. 31; a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Port Bolivar, TX to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line, LA, with landfall expected Tuesday
Hurricane Karina, far out in the Pacific
Karina strengthened from a tropical storm into a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday, with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph. It’s located roughly 820 miles southwest of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula and moving northwest at about 15 mph. The National Hurricane Center expects it to keep strengthening into a major hurricane within the next day or two.
Karina’s center isn’t threatening land. The National Weather Service office in San Diego says the storm is expected to stay well south of Southern California, though some longer-range computer models show it eventually curving toward the West Coast — a scenario the Hurricane Center itself has not forecast. The storm’s swells are expected to bring dangerous surf and rip currents to southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this week.
A separate Eastern Pacific tropical wave well south of southwestern Mexico also has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression early to midweek.
A Gulf disturbance eyed by Louisiana and Texas
Louisiana and Texas have the most reason to watch this week. A low-pressure area was sitting about 125 miles south of the southeastern Louisiana coast, according to the Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. Sunday outlook, with the center putting its odds of developing into at least a tropical depression at 50% — the same figure whether measured over the next 48 hours or the full seven days, essentially a coin flip. Should it organize, forecasters say it would likely be short-lived, potentially reaching the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast around Tuesday, Sept. 1, or that night.
It did strengthen: the system became Tropical Depression Five on Monday, Aug. 31, prompting the Tropical Storm Warning described above.
What’s left of Tropical Storm Dolly
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are dealing with the after-effects of Dolly, which formed in the central Atlantic on Thursday, Aug. 27, then weakened into a tropical wave within about a day and dissipated by Friday, Aug. 28, without ever reaching hurricane strength or making landfall. Its remnant moisture is now producing showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands, with gusty winds up to 30 mph expected into Monday. Meteorologists covering the storm have described the rain as a rare bit of good news for islands facing severe to extreme drought, with some calling Dolly a rare beneficial tropical storm for the region. The Hurricane Center says the system is unlikely to organize into anything again in the next day or two.
Tropical Storm Lowell, near Hawaii
Near Hawaii, forecasters are tracking Tropical Storm Lowell, which entered the Central Pacific on Sunday with 50 mph winds, about 1,070 miles east-southeast of Hilo. It’s expected to strengthen into a hurricane as soon as Monday, Aug. 31, and potentially reach Category 2 strength by Thursday, Sept. 3, while passing several hundred miles south of Hawaii’s Big Island before curving more to the northwest. No watch or warning has been issued for Hawaii.
The bigger picture
By late August, at least four named storms — Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly — had formed, and reliable reporting had not confirmed an Atlantic hurricane. Arthur brought record rainfall to parts of Louisiana and spawned Gulf-coast tornadoes in mid-June; Tropical Storm Bertha — not a hurricane — made landfall in southeastern Louisiana and then Texas in late July before weakening to a tropical depression and dissipating; Cristobal formed briefly over the open Atlantic in mid-August and weakened to a post-tropical system within a day without approaching land. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)’s latest outlook, updated in August, still calls for a below-normal season overall: 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and up to two major hurricanes. The agency puts the odds of a below-normal season at 75%. NOAA points to a strong El Niño pattern as the main reason the Atlantic has stayed relatively quiet.
The Gulf system was the one to watch, and it did develop: Tropical Depression Five formed Monday, Aug. 31, with a Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for the northwestern Gulf Coast and landfall expected Tuesday. Residents along the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast should follow the National Hurricane Center’s updates directly for the latest track and timing.
Sources and further reading
- NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic hurricane season
- NWS Active Alerts API query (Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch/Warning)
- NHC homepage (active tropical cyclones/systems)
- NWS active alerts API (Tropical Storm Warning event query)
- Hurricane Karina Public Advisory
- Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
- NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season