Social Security Announces 3.6% COLA for 2027, About $75 More a Month for the Average Retiree

Update, Oct. 16, 2026: The Social Security Administration announced on Oct. 14 that benefits will rise 3.6% in January 2027. According to the agency’s release, retirement benefits will increase by $75 a month on average, nearly 72 million Social Security beneficiaries will see the increase, and about 7.3 million people who receive Supplemental Security Income will get higher payments beginning Dec. 31, 2026. The agency said Medicare enrollees’ 2027 premium will be available through their my Social Security Message Center starting in late November, so the net effect of the raise after the Part B premium is not yet known. The 3.6% matches the highest of the four estimates this article tracked before the announcement (The Senior Citizens League’s); AARP had 3.5%, Mary Johnson 3.4% and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget 3.2%.

What the estimates said before the announcement

The rest of this article was written in August, when the official number was not yet known. Four organizations that track the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) put the 2027 figure between 3.2% and 3.6%. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) had the highest estimate, at 3.6%. AARP put it at 3.5%. Independent analyst Mary Johnson estimated 3.4%. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) had the lowest estimate, at 3.2%.

Key facts

Official 2027 COLA (announced Oct. 14): 3.6%, about $75 more a month on average, per the Social Security Administration
Estimates before the announcement: 3.2% to 3.6%, depending on the tracker
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL): 3.6%
AARP: 3.5%
Mary Johnson (independent analyst): 3.4%
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB): 3.2%
2026 COLA (already in effect): 2.8%
Medicare Part B 2027 premium: to be available in late November, per the agency

How the estimate is calculated

The Social Security Administration calculates the COLA from average inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), across July, August and September — compared with the same three months a year earlier. Only July’s figure is in so far, from a CPI-W report the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Aug. 12. It showed inflation cooling to 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5% in June. That figure matches Mary Johnson’s separate 3.4% COLA estimate, but the two numbers measure different things: one is the July inflation reading, while the other is her calculation of next year’s raise. That cooling in July’s inflation reading is what pushed all four trackers to lower the estimates they had been running earlier in the summer. TSCL cut its estimate from 3.8% to 3.6%. AARP cut its estimate from 3.6% to 3.5%. Johnson — who is not affiliated with TSCL, AARP or the government, but has published her own COLA projections for years and is regularly cited alongside those two organizations as a separate, independent data point — saw her own estimate fall further, from a high of roughly 4.7% in June, through about 3.7%, to its current 3.4%, a decline she has attributed to what she called “a moderation in inflation.”

More data still needed

Two more months of data are still needed before any number is final. AARP itself says its 3.5% estimate “is not set in stone” and could still move depending on how food and energy prices behave in the reports still to come.

How this compares to 2026

The 2026 Social Security COLA, finalized last October, was 2.8%. Every current 2027 estimate — even CRFB’s low-end 3.2% — is above that, although the final 2027 figure is not yet known.

What it could mean in dollars

Published dollar illustrations for 3.5%-3.6% scenarios range from roughly $70 to $75 more a month for an average retired worker, depending on the baseline benefit used. There is no single confirmed dollar figure yet, both because the percentage itself isn’t locked in and because trackers start from different baseline benefit amounts.

TSCL (3.6% estimate): raises the average benefit it tracks from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28 — about $70 more.
Newsweek analysis (same 3.6% rate, applied to a baseline of roughly $2,086 — the same starting figure AARP uses below): puts the increase at about $75 more, to around $2,161.
AARP (3.5% estimate): raises the average retired-worker benefit from about $2,086 to $2,159 — about $73 more.

What happens next

When this article was first written, the August CPI-W report was due Sept. 11, giving analysts two of the three months of data the formula needs. The Social Security Administration then announced the official 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, alongside the September CPI-W figure, the last piece of the calculation. The September inflation report itself is covered in our article on September’s 3.7% annual inflation.