An NBC News poll released Sunday, Sept. 20, finds that 41% of registered voters approve of President Donald Trump, which NBC calls a second-term low in the poll. In the same survey, 55% say his policies have hurt economic conditions, and 50% prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats, against 45% for one controlled by Republicans.
The poll was conducted Sept. 11-15 by Hart Research Associates, a Democratic firm, and Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican firm. It surveyed 1,000 registered voters, 724 by live phone and 276 by an online survey sent by text. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The numbers
On approval, 41% approve (25% strongly, 16% somewhat) and 56% disapprove, including 48% who disapprove strongly.
The economy question asked whether Trump’s policies have “helped or hurt economic conditions.” Fifty-five percent said hurt, 26% said helped and 18% said not much difference. NBC notes the March 2026 reading came before the Iran war pushed up prices on gas and other goods.
The Congress question offered “a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats”: 50% Democratic, 45% Republican, 5% not sure.
How this compares with the poll’s own past readings
Its second-term approval readings were 47% in March 2025 and 42% in June 2026. Democrats led the Congress question by 8 points in October 2025, 6 in March 2026 and 5 in June, and lead by 5 now; NBC’s September 2018 comparison is a 52-40 lead, 12 points. On the economy, 48% said Trump’s policies hurt in March 2026, against 55% now.
A separate national poll, from Marquette Law School (fieldwork Sept. 2-9, released Sept. 16), found 37% of all adults approving and 63% disapproving of Trump, and Democrats ahead among registered voters on the congressional ballot, 50% to 42%. It is a different pollster with different dates and method, so it is not a trend line.
What the poll does not say
This is a snapshot, not a forecast of the midterms.
The economy figure needs one qualification. Asked which party they trust more on the economy, 39% chose Democrats and 38% Republicans (half of the sample), a gap NBC labels within the margin of error; in September 2023 Republicans led on that question by 21 points. On inflation, asked of everyone, it was 38% to 31% for Democrats.
The poll also asked what a vote for Congress is meant to signal. Forty-three percent said opposition to Trump, 27% support and 28% neither. Among independents, 46% said opposition and 10% support, according to NBC’s article.
NBC’s two pollsters drew different emphases. Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster, said: “We have a classic battle between these numbers and the political geography in which this campaign will be decided.” He also said: “The issue environment is tilting substantially towards the Democrats.”
Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, the Democratic pollster, said: “This speaks more to deep dissatisfaction with Trump and Republicans than a ringing endorsement of Democrats.” He also said: “Donald Trump has achieved his goal of making this election about him at a historic level. The problem for Trump and Republicans on the ballot in November is that he has also made history in the highest share of voters who say their vote is in opposition to Trump.” NBC’s article says Democrats “would have to flip multiple states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win the Senate.”
On the Iran war, 33% said it was worth it and 62% not (half of the sample). A candidate endorsed by Trump would make 30% more likely to vote for them and 52% less likely. Asked about a plan for the federal government to send a check for $5,000 to every adult if Republicans keep control of Congress (397 respondents, asked Sept. 14-15), 21% said a candidate who supports it would be more likely to get their vote and 46% less likely.