As of about 9 a.m. EDT on Sunday, Oct. 4, voting is under way in Brazil’s general election. Polls close at 5 p.m. in Brasília, which is 4 p.m. EDT. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) gives two totals for eligible voters: 158,745,463 in an Oct. 4 news release and 158,765,543 on its press-center page. The pages we read do not explain the difference.
What is on the ballot
Voters choose a president, a governor, two senators, a federal deputy and a state or district deputy. Voters abroad, 918,876 of them, vote only for president and vice president.
Voting runs from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, and anyone in line at closing may still vote, the TSE says.
How counting works
The TSE describes two steps. In the first, “apuração,” each machine counts its own section’s votes and generates a “Boletim de Urna,” a tally slip. In the second, “totalização,” the tallies from machines across the country and abroad are added together. The TSE says that produces “the results of the election” (our translation). Results can be followed on the TSE’s Resultados system after 5 p.m. Brasília time.
The TSE counted 12 presidential tickets and said on Sept. 11 that a second round, if needed, is set for Oct. 25. According to Jornal do Commercio, valid votes leave out blank and null votes, and a first-round win needs more than half of them.
Alô Alô Bahia, a regional news site, reports that the TSE expects to know by 8:30 p.m. whether a runoff is needed (it gives no time zone; if Brasília time, 7:30 p.m. EDT). It says that in 2022 the TSE confirmed a runoff at 9:25 p.m. with 96.93% of machines tallied, and in 2018 at 8:48 p.m.
What the last polls reported
Revista Fórum, a Brazilian outlet, compiled the last polls of six institutes. It wrote that Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are separated by gaps that “in most cases fit within the margin of error” (our translation). Figures below are the pollsters’ own, as the outlet lists them, for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in that order:
- Quaest: 46% and 45% of valid votes; margin of error 2 points, 3,702 voters interviewed Oct. 2-3.
- Datafolha: 45% and 42% of valid votes, margin of error 2 points, 4,006 voters interviewed Oct. 3. Among all votes, including blank, null and undecided, it shows 42% and 40%.
- PoderData/Aya: 45% and 43%, margin of error 1.5 points.
- CNT/MDA: 47.8% and 42.1%, margin of error 2.2 points.
- Veritá: 44.65% and 45.14%, margin of error 2.5 points as the outlet lists it; Revista Fórum says its data were collected Sept. 20-25.
- Atlas: 46.7% and 43.8%, margin of error 1 point.
Revista Fórum labels the Quaest, Datafolha and CNT/MDA figures as valid votes and does not state the basis for the others, so compare them with care. Quaest also lists Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 3% each; Datafolha lists Caiado at 4%, Santos and Cury at 3% each and Romeu Zema (Novo) at 1%, per Jornal do Commercio. A poll is not a result.
What the TSE president said this morning
TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques voted at 8 a.m. Brasília time (7 a.m. EDT). The TSE says he stated that incidents recorded up to the eve were handled and that some machines and sections were moved in advance because of weather conditions (drought in the North, heavy rain in the South) (our translation). Before voting, he watched the “zerésima” printed, a printout showing no votes recorded.
What we did not find
As of about 9 a.m. EDT, we did not find turnout figures or incident reports for today. In the sources we read, we did not find the field dates or samples for the Atlas, PoderData/Aya, CNT/MDA and Veritá polls. We did not find any result.
Sources and further reading
- Veja o que você precisa saber para votar com tranquilidade neste domingo (4)
- Eleições 2026 em números: 158,7 milhões de eleitores estão aptos a votar
- Entenda a diferença entre apuração e totalização de votos
- Presidente do TSE afirma que Justiça Eleitoral está preparada para uma das eleições mais tranquilas e exitosas
- Eleições têm 12 candidaturas na disputa pela Presidência da República