Tidal flooding has repeated over several high tides around Norfolk and the lower Chesapeake Bay and is set to continue through Friday night, and forecasters say some spots — especially in the middle Bay — could keep flooding into the weekend. The National Weather Service’s Wakefield, Va., office said in its 3:10 p.m. EDT forecast discussion Thursday that “widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue through tomorrow night at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay potentially seeing moderate coastal flooding through Saturday or Sunday.” AGL means above ground level — the water is being measured against the ground itself, not a distant gauge.
What the weather service says
Forecasters said most sites are “seeing anomalies of 2.5-3.5 ft above normal astronomical tide today,” with similar anomalies expected tonight and Friday — “similar flooding as has been experienced for the last few high tide cycles.” In other words, this is not a single incoming event; the same pattern of high water has already repeated over several tide cycles. The office also said the rain and wind depend on a developing storm: “Rain chances and gusty winds look to linger along the coast Friday depending on the track of the developing nor’easter” — the National Weather Service’s own term for the system. Warnings have been extended “for all sites through Friday night,” and surge guidance has “trended higher” for the middle and eastern Bay for Saturday and Sunday. Forecasters were explicit that the weekend forecast is not settled: “There is still uncertainty in the tide forecast for the weekend … it is quite possible that some warnings will need to be extended.”
What is in force by area
As of about 6:35 p.m. EDT Thursday, the National Weather Service had 16 coastal flood warnings and 12 coastal flood advisories active across Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, North Carolina and Washington, D.C., along with separate beach hazard, high surf, rip current and wind products. NWS Wakefield’s warning for Chesapeake, Suffolk, Hampton, Poquoson, Norfolk and Portsmouth, issued at 2:57 p.m. EDT, is in effect until 11 a.m. EDT Saturday and covers “two to three feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.” The office described the impact directly: “Water will be 2 to 3 feet above ground level in some areas resulting in a sufficient depth to close numerous roads and threaten homes and businesses.” Virginia Beach is under a separate warning running to the same time. Other active warnings and advisories cover Maryland’s Dorchester, Wicomico and Somerset counties; Virginia’s Eastern Shore (Accomack and Northampton) and the Maryland beaches; Anne Arundel, St. Mary’s and Arlington/Alexandria, on shorter windows ending Friday from the Baltimore/Washington office; Delaware’s beaches and Kent and inland Sussex counties, to 2 a.m. Saturday from the Mount Holly office; and Hatteras and Ocracoke islands, to 11 p.m. Friday from the Newport/Morehead City office.
The Norfolk gauge
At the Sewell’s Point tide gauge in Norfolk, NOAA’s National Water Prediction Service recorded 5.04 feet above mean lower low water at 6:06 p.m. EDT Thursday — already past the 4.5-foot minor flood stage and rising, above the 4.0-foot action stage, but below the 5.5-foot moderate and 6.5-foot major thresholds. A forecast issued at 2:51 p.m. EDT projected the water would crest near 6.0 feet — moderate flood stage — between about 8 and 9 p.m. EDT Thursday. By the time readers see this, that crest may already be under way or just past.
Norfolk’s response
The City of Norfolk said in a Thursday alert that its parking strategy for flood events is in effect, and residents may move cars to higher ground in the York Street Garage and other designated city-owned lots and garages, and Old Dominion University’s Constant Center 43rd Street Garage is also available. The city said “Hampton Boulevard near Surrey Crescent and Larchmont will be impassable at high tides,” and that “crews are actively responding to impacts, including roadway flooding, drainage issues, waste collection and transportation impacts.” Trash and recycling collection is still scheduled for Friday. The city’s own post described the warning as running “through 4 p.m. Friday,” but the more recent National Weather Service warning extends to 11 a.m. Saturday.
The Outer Banks and Delaware beaches
Farther south, the National Weather Service’s Newport/Morehead City office said in its 2:20 p.m. EDT discussion that “NC-12 from the Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe remains closed due to ocean overwash.” To the north, the Mount Holly office’s forecast discussion warned of dangerous rip currents and high surf along the Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches through Saturday.
What to do
The National Weather Service’s instruction for anyone in an affected area is direct: “If travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth.”
What comes next
Forecasters have already flagged the biggest open question: how the developing nor’easter tracks into the weekend. That uncertainty is why the middle and eastern Bay could see surge run higher Saturday and Sunday, and why the National Weather Service says some warnings now set to expire Friday night may need to be extended rather than lifted.
This article is current as of about 6:35 p.m. EDT Thursday, based on the National Weather Service Wakefield office’s 3:10 p.m. forecast discussion, the active alert feed and the 6:06 p.m. reading at the Sewell’s Point tide gauge; all will be superseded by later updates.