One Texas Rain Event, Four Forecasts: North Texas Looks Toward Drier Weather While the Coast Awaits More Rain

Photo: Matthew T Rader, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons — The downtown Dallas skyline at dusk (file photo, 2020). Flood watches covered Dallas and much of North and Central Texas on Oct. 2.

As of about 9 a.m. CDT Friday, one stretch of wet weather has left four National Weather Service offices covering Texas (Fort Worth, Austin/San Antonio, Houston/Galveston and Corpus Christi) with four different outlooks. Each of the four has a Flood Watch for at least part of its area that runs until 7 p.m. Friday.

What Thursday left behind in Dallas-Fort Worth

CBS News Texas reported that much of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex received more than 4 inches of rain Thursday, “after months of above-average temperatures and virtually no rainfall across the region.” It said that Thursday was the ninth-wettest October day on record for DFW, and that the region got more rain than in all of July, August and September combined.

CBS’s live blog listed 1,132 delays and 324 cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International as of 2 p.m. Thursday. It put totals from just under 3 inches to nearly 6 inches and tied the storm to the remnants of former Hurricane Polo. The blog also reported more than 15,000 Oncor customers without power in a Thursday morning update; its entries did not report any deaths or injuries.

North Texas: wet ground, more rain, then drier weather

NWS Fort Worth extended its Flood Watch to 7 p.m. because widespread rain of 1 to 4 inches had fallen over the past 36 hours and soils were saturated. Forecasters said “isolated additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible,” but “most areas will likely experience additional totals of around an inch or less.” The discussion also said “another round of elevated convection is possible Friday night into Saturday morning.”

NWS Fort Worth says “One final opportunity for rain will occur on Sunday,” with “most of the precipitation” across Central Texas, and “All activity will come to an end Sunday night.” The overnight discussion left it to the day shift to decide on “any additional extensions to the Flood Watch if needed.” For next week it says: “Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected next week along with mostly clear skies and much drier weather.”

San Antonio and Austin: a lower threat Saturday

NWS Austin/San Antonio said “a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for flooding is in place,” though the office said redevelopment of storms overnight was possible “but uncertain,” and noted that “with already saturated soils, additional flooding is possible and it wouldn’t take much to get runoff.” On Saturday, the office said, “the flooding threat looks lower as deeper tropical moisture is kicked further southward.”

Houston and the coast: the next heavy-rain window

NWS Houston/Galveston expects “periods of showers and thunderstorms … through early Sunday,” and said locally heavy rain “could lead to instances of flash flooding.” Its next potential for heavy rainfall comes “late Saturday into Sunday mainly along the coast,” with totals south of I-10 generally anticipated at 2 to 4 inches from Saturday through early next week, and about 6 inches or more a few miles off the coast. The office wrote that whether that rain falls close enough to the coast to bring flooding concerns “remains uncertain.”

South Texas: generally 1 to 3 more inches

NWS Corpus Christi said flash flooding remains possible “especially where heavy rain fell on Thursday,” with moderate to high rain chances continuing through the weekend and additional rainfall amounts generally of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher totals possible.

What this means

For Dallas, the Flood Watch is set to end at 7 p.m., while a Flood Warning for Dallas County runs until 4:24 a.m. Saturday, though NWS Fort Worth left the door open to extensions, and rain is forecast to end Sunday night. For the Texas coast, NWS Houston/Galveston puts the heaviest forecast rain late Saturday into Sunday, with its own caveat that the outcome “remains uncertain.” All of this reflects forecasts as of about 9 a.m. CDT Friday, and the National Weather Service can change them.